Wales notebook: Defeat to Belgium dents World Cup qualifying dream - but all is not lost

Where does this leave Wales' hopes of reaching next year's World Cup? Dented, but far from over.

The simple and quick route has been shut off by Belgium, who now hold all the aces going into November's final round of games. It's difficult to argue against the position Belgium hold, they were just the better side in Cardiff.

Qualifying in November holds so many more benefits than just the glory of topping your qualifying group. Planning can start earlier, the scramble for the better training facilities and hotels is easier - you don't have to run the gauntlet of the play-offs.

For Wales there are still some avenues that offer a North American adventure next year, though.

Before we get to the conclusion of Group J, Wales' performance in the first half-dozen games with Craig Bellamy as head coach led to a successful Nations League campaign, and although not 100 per cent certain, that campaign should provide a play-off route next March if Wales finish third.

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For that to happen - and it is more a probability than possibility - it requires two of England, Germany, Spain, Portugal and France to finish top or second in their respective qualifying groups. That's a motley crew of Europe's elite, so you would expect at least two of them to come first or second.

Presuming Belgium win their remaining two matches next month, the other route is for Wales to dust themselves down and win their final two group games next month away at Liechtenstein and then beat North Macedonia in Cardiff.

They'll need to win both to ensure second place in the group, but again, there is life still in this qualifying group for Wales. Two games to go, one away at the 204th best team on the planet and the other at home.

Ok, it's not as satisfying or confidence-building as winning the group and out-gunning Belgium, but maybe we witnessed where the gulf lies. Belgium remained composed at all times, the opening 10 minutes must have been a nightmare as Wales battered them and took a deserved lead, but when those key moments came, Belgium delivered.

The first penalty for Belgium can be debated in pubs, bars, touchlines and press conferences, but it was awarded by the officials after VAR intervened. Referees don't change their minds because of players pleading their case.

It's a decision perhaps we won't necessarily see in the Premier League now, but we did see them given a couple of seasons back, and in Europe for club and international games the officiating is different. Kevin De Bruyne's composure and execution of both penalties was top-notch.

De Bruyne reminds me of Lionel Messi's penalty taking at the last World Cup in Qatar, he just waits for the goalkeeper to make their move, however late, and places the ball into an area that is impossible to save.

What De Bruyne showed was that when a chance of a goal offers itself to you, you take it clinically. Wales had plenty of chances, but they were often 50/50s. When a team, however hard it works, is beaten by someone better, then it's time to hold up your hands and accept it.

Bellamy has spoken much in recent weeks about exposing his side to the best teams in the world and over the course of the last week he has done just that - England and Belgium. Defeat always hurts, but if a small nation like Wales, with a much smaller player pool of talent, is to learn then perhaps some hard nights and lessons are what's needed for the greater good.

There's another thing on my mind which I can't get rid of. It's a Bellamy quote from a while ago: "There's always a twist and I feel it in this group…"

Well, so far he's been right. No one saw Belgium dropping points at home against North Macedonia and it happened. No one saw a late, late and - to drill home the point - a very late equaliser for Wales in their first match in qualifying away to the same team, yet that happened.

Bellamy also let this one out the other day: "Belgium still have to travel to Kazakhstan, that's a hard one in so many ways."

Could there yet be another twist in this group? Kazakhstan is a seven-hour flight there and back for Belgium. They play on an artificial pitch and they play there on November 15. By my reckoning, Astana in November is a touch cold.

Surely we're not back to talking about automatic qualification again...

Perhaps not, there's a fatal flaw. Belgium's final qualification game is at home against Liechtenstein. Eighth in the world vs 204th in the world. Surely not?

(c) Sky Sports 2025: Wales notebook: Defeat to Belgium dents World Cup qualifying dream - but all is not lost